Nic Carter predicts open-weight models will handle 99% of all inference
thedealdirector · x · 2026-08-27
Investor Nic Carter "spoils the ending" of the open-weight vs frontier lab race: Chinese or other open-weight models end up handling 99% (maybe 99.99%) of all inference; frontier models still monetize at $100s of billions per year on bespoke, enormously complex tasks; labs internalize most of that revenue by becoming biotech (etc.) companies themselves or via JVs with winners in each industry; and the public frontier lags the true frontier by a year or more as labs keep the best models in-house.
The Deal Director pushes back: look at where real inference tokens and money actually go, and the story falls apart — the "race" persists only because some frontier-lab figures are deeply unlikable plus the European sovereignty play.
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