Polymarket: 13% Chance AI Bubble Bursts by End of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-26
Prediction market Polymarket currently puts the probability of the AI bubble bursting by the end of 2026 at just 13%.
The resolution criteria for this market are specific and require at least three of the following events to occur within a 90-day window:
- Stock Plunges: NVIDIA (NVDA) down 50% from all-time highs; SOXX ETF down 40%; or major hardware suppliers (TSM, ASML, AVGO, etc.) down 50%.
- Corporate Crisis: Bankruptcy declared by OpenAI or Anthropic, or acquisition of OpenAI.
- Hardware Devaluation: H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days.
Related event: Prediction Markets See Only ~12% Odds of AI Bubble Burst(4 posts)→
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