Extrapolating Anthropic's Risk Report: RSI a Lower Bound Before Late 2026
peterwildeford · x · 2026-08-25
Saif Khan extrapolates from Anthropic's August 2026 risk report that fully automated AI R&D (RSI) may arrive between Dec 2026 and Feb 2027 (or 2028 under pessimistic assumptions). He regresses CoBench (Anthropic's internal automated AI R&D benchmark) against AECI scores across recent Claude models, using the report's claim that a model fully substituting for Anthropic research staff should score at least 85% on CoBench.
Peter Wildeford argues (and Khan has conceded) the correct reading is that RSI is highly unlikely before Sep 2026 — the benchmark is a lower bound on RSI, not evidence it lands around Dec 2026. After Dec 2026 it becomes harder to rule out RSI, though he still considers it unlikely.
Related event: Analysis Suggests Fully Automated AI R&D May Arrive by Late 2026(2 posts)→
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