Forecaster Peter Wildeford: 50% chance AI fully automates AI research within 4 years
peterwildeford · x · 2026-08-24
Top forecaster Peter Wildeford shifted focus from predicting 'superintelligence' dates to estimating when AIs can replace highly skilled human labor in all aspects of AI R&D. He assigns a 50% probability to reaching this milestone within 4 years, and about 10% within one year.
Related event: Forecaster Sees 50% Odds of Recursive AI Self-Improvement Within 4 Years(2 posts)→
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