50% chance of AI recursive self-improvement within 4 years
peterwildeford · x · 2026-08-24
The author predicts timelines for AI recursive self-improvement (AI replacing human researchers in R&D): a 50% probability within 4 years, with an 80% confidence interval of 1-30 years. There is also a 10% chance of this happening within a year. The author argues against fixed dates for 'superintelligence', emphasizing non-linear societal changes prior to any milestone.
Related event: Forecaster Sees 50% Odds of Recursive AI Self-Improvement Within 4 Years(2 posts)→
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