On Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Game Theory, and System Stability
davidmanheim · x · 2026-08-23
David Manheim critiques the "anti-basilisk" framing, suggesting it views the issue too much through hyperstition and too little through the lens of expecting stability in changing systems and basic game theory regarding exploitation. A reply adds that while some predictions don't affect reality, others are self-fulfilling (e.g., derivatives prices) or self-defeating. Relying on others (AI or not) to cooperate in the face of defection is characterized as self-defeating.
Related event: When Predictions Fulfill or Defeat Themselves(2 posts)→
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