Anthropic study finds AI has not caused job layoffs, predicts stable employment for the next year
新智元 · wechat · 2026-08-23
Peter McCrory, Head of Economic Research at Anthropic, published an analysis stating that despite a surge in AI output and adoption by one-fifth of US firms, the US unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, a level consistent with full employment. Data shows that jobs highly exposed to AI, such as software engineering, have not seen worsening unemployment rates, with hiring even rebounding. McCrory argues that AI currently acts as a "skill-biased" augmentation tool, as every job has elements AI cannot replace, like interpersonal interaction and physical world engagement, and stronger AI demands higher user expertise. He predicts AI will not significantly raise unemployment in the next 12 months but warns of potential disruptions from future scenarios like the "software singularity," "economic singularity," and "Coase singularity."
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