Optics Won’t Scale as Fast as Market Expects: Manufacturing Constraints
BenBajarin · x · 2026-08-22
This report analyzes the transition from copper to fiber in AI infrastructure, focusing on the adoption timeline for NPO, CPO, and optical I/O. While compute roadmaps demand more optics per unit, the immature manufacturing ecosystem and lack of standardization are key hurdles. The report forecasts that manufacturing capacity, specifically qualified output and InP capacity, will constrain optical attach rates through at least 2028, rather than market demand.
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