Polymarket: 14% chance AI bubble bursts by year-end
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-21
Polymarket puts the probability of an AI industry downturn by the end of the year at 14%.
The market defines a downturn based on specific criteria, including:
- NVIDIA or major hardware suppliers (TSM, Broadcom) stock dropping 50% from all-time highs.
- Bankruptcy or acquisition of OpenAI or Anthropic.
- H100 rental prices falling to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days.
Related event: Prediction Markets See Only ~14% Chance of AI Bubble Bursting This Year(3 posts)→
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