Early-stage hot deals show no correlation with returns
MartinGTobias · x · 2026-08-20
Investor MartinGTobias retweeted an insight by Dave McClure, noting that early-stage "hot" (expensive) deals are not correlated with returns. Major successes like Twilio, Canva, and Solana were not hot deals at the Pre-seed/Seed stage, yet yielded over 100X returns. Data from PeterJWalker also supports the lack of correlation between entry and exit prices.
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