Is AI a Bubble? Exponential View's Five Gauges Say Not Yet, but 2027 Is the Year to Watch
Exponential View (Azeem Azhar) · rss · 2026-08-19
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View updates its boom-or-bubble dashboard: no gauges in the red, two in amber, the rest barely green — the verdict remains boom, not bubble.
- AI revenues reached $126 billion over the trailing twelve months as of July, still outrunning even higher infrastructure spending.
- A jumpy market triggered a severe correction in semiconductor stocks, somewhat cooling public valuations.
- With demand hitting tight compute supply, hyperscalers are scouring the globe for debt and increasingly intricate financing vehicles — rational while revenue compounds, but brittle if growth slows.
- Funding quality has deteriorated since Sep 2025; the base case sees economic strain turning red during 2027.
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