AI Progress Outpaces Predictions: Old Timelines Underestimated Exponential Growth
teortaxesTex · x · 2026-08-19
A retrospective on old AI timeline predictions from LessWrong. The post cites specific predictions made by Ege Erdil in Nov 2023, noting that actual AI progress appears to be happening faster than anticipated, particularly with a steeper growth curve than predicted. The comment suggests that Ege underestimated the effect sizes, and we are on a steeper exponential trajectory rather than just meeting 2030 targets.
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