Matt Shumer explains his angel investing playbook: back the winner at 3x the price
mattshumer_ · x · 2026-08-19
Matt Shumer (early personal backer of OpenRouter and Etched) laid out his investing approach on X. About half the time he holds a thesis he's so convinced by that, given time, he'd start that company himself — then he finds the best team in the space. The other half, something strikes him instantly, he digs in, and if excited enough, contacts the founder.
His advice: don't overthink it — figure out what the world looks like a few years out, what will be needed, whether real business value exists under the tech or it'll be commoditized, whether there's a compounding edge, then invest in the most likely winner.
A common mistake he sees: investing in a non-top-tier company because the valuation is better. He'd rather pick the likely winner at 3x the price.
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