AI hyperscalers' $308B debt buildout is pushing up Treasury yields
tszzl · x · 2026-08-19
The thread revisits tszzl's October 2025 stance: "I'll believe we're over-investing in computational substrate once I see real rates above 3%." The real yield on 30-year Treasuries now stands at 3.00%, the highest since the Great Recession.
Drivers include the large federal deficit, above-target inflation, and the Fed holding rates—but the new one: AI hyperscalers borrowing so heavily to fund compute buildouts that they're raising the US government's cost of capital. It's classic "crowding out" in reverse: hyperscalers, data center providers, and AI infrastructure projects have issued over $308 billion in debt.
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