Optics supply chain lags, delaying all-optical AI rack transition
BenBajarin · x · 2026-08-19
Ben Bajarin analyzes the immaturity of the optical interconnect supply chain, particularly for NPO/CPO, despite OCP launching a shared reference architecture for silicon photonics.
Key points:
- Manufacturing Bottleneck: Manufacturing capacity will constrain the attach rate of optics through at least 2028.
- Lack of Standardization: Architectures remain unsettled, and vendors require specialized co-design, signaling an immature ecosystem.
- Transition Path: LPO/pluggables remain the most mature segment and won't disappear soon; NPO is expected to drive growth before CPO.
- Forecast vs Reality: Market expectations may be too optimistic; qualified output, not demand, will dictate the actual adoption curve.
Related event: Optical Interconnect Rollout to Lag as Manufacturing Bottleneck Persists(2 posts)→
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