Prediction: Frontier models may surpass Instruct baseline by September 2026
maksym_andr · x · 2026-08-18
Based on a simple extrapolation of PostTrainBench v1.1 data, the Official Instruct Models baseline is projected to be surpassed by September 2026 (approximately 2 weeks away).
Analysis:
- The author suggests that frontier labs likely already possess internal models that perform (significantly?) better than the current public benchmark score of 51.1%.
- The extrapolation highlights the rapid iteration pace of model capabilities.
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