Polymarket: 12% chance AI bubble bursts by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-18
Polymarket prediction markets show only a 12% chance the AI industry bubble will burst by the end of 2026 (Yes at 13.3¢).
The market defines an "industry downturn" as meeting at least three of the following conditions within a 90-day window:
- NVIDIA (NVDA) stock closes 50% below all-time high.
- Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closes 40% below all-time high.
- OpenAI or Anthropic declares bankruptcy, or OpenAI is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days.
- Major hardware suppliers (TSMC, ASML, etc.) stock closes 50% below all-time high.
Related event: Polymarket Sees Low Odds of AI Bubble Burst by End of 2026(3 posts)→
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