Market gives Tesla just 17% chance to launch robotaxis in CA by year-end
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-18
Polymarket data shows only a 17% chance Tesla will launch a driverless taxi service in California by the end of 2026. Analysis indicates Tesla currently holds only a supervised testing permit from the CA DMV, has logged minimal qualifying miles, and faces significant technical and regulatory gaps before obtaining permits for unsupervised operations.
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