Polymarket gives Tesla's Optimus release by year-end an 11% chance
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-17
Prediction market Polymarket currently shows an 11% probability that Tesla will release its Optimus humanoid robot by the end of the year. The market defines "release" strictly, requiring general consumer availability via official channels with a live checkout or paid deposit; internal deployments, partner pilots, or simple waitlists do not qualify.
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