AI experts debate: compute bottleneck may reshape takeoff, efficiency cuts intelligence cost 10x yearly
_sholtodouglas · x · 2026-08-16
In a discussion on AI development speed, some argue that even with top models tomorrow, experimental bottlenecks would still limit progress, altering the shape of fast takeoff. Meanwhile, predictions suggest compute spending grows 2-3x yearly, while intelligence cost drops 10x annually due to efficiency gains, potentially making intelligence extremely cheap and easing inequality concerns.
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