Human brains remain economically useful due to efficiency; H100 shortage may delay AGI takeoff
GavinSBaker · x · 2026-08-16
Gavin Baker discusses AGI trends and societal impact in a thread replying to Sholtodouglas:
- Cyber vs. Bio: Cyber defense is dominant, while offense dominates in bio, providing a strong argument for regulation.
- Compute shortage as a buffer: The shortage of H100s and high DRAM prices are effectively "civilizationally useful," buying time for humanity to adapt to a potential fast takeoff.
- Human computational efficiency: Impressed that the brain runs on just 15-20 watts, suggesting humans will remain economically useful even in an AGI maximalist scenario due to this efficiency.
- Regulatory transparency: The US government should have all necessary information to make informed choices as events unfold.
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