Jack Clark outlines three eras of AI progress through 2028
jackclarkSF · x · 2026-08-15
Jack Clark outlines rough eras of recent AI progress based on what the research community is collectively optimizing:
- 2018-2022: Basic capabilities (summarizing, coding, etc)
- 2022-2026: Norm & time coherence (rlhf/CAI, longer context, agents)
- 2026 - ?2028?: Scientific intuition / independence
Related event: Jack Clark Maps AI's Evolution in Three Phases Toward Scientific Intuition(3 posts)→
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