AI Eras Forecast: From Basic Capabilities to Scientific Intuition
jackclarkSF · x · 2026-08-15
Jack Clark cites a framework categorizing recent AI progress into distinct eras:
- 2018-2022: Basic capabilities (summarizing, coding, etc.)
- 2022-2026: Norm & time coherence (RLHF, longer context, agents)
- 2026-?2028?: Scientific intuition / independence
The projection suggests that future advancements will focus on developing AI's ability to exhibit scientific intuition and operate independently.
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