AI Eras Forecast: From Basic Capabilities to Scientific Intuition
jackclarkSF · x · 2026-08-15
Jack Clark cites a framework categorizing recent AI progress into distinct eras:
- 2018-2022: Basic capabilities (summarizing, coding, etc.)
- 2022-2026: Norm & time coherence (RLHF, longer context, agents)
- 2026-?2028?: Scientific intuition / independence
The projection suggests that future advancements will focus on developing AI's ability to exhibit scientific intuition and operate independently.
Related event: Jack Clark Maps AI's Evolution in Three Phases Toward Scientific Intuition(3 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Grady Booch: LLMs can't reason, P(doom) near zero, real fear is power-grabbing billionaires — Grady_Booch · 2026-10-16
- Vals AI test: 6 personal agents pursue a £350 refund aggressively after user goes silent — ricklamers · 2026-10-16
- OpenAI's internal model shows real math "research taste," experts say its proofs go beyond prior literature — cong_ml · 2026-10-16
- willcb: AI's endpoint looks like faster, cheaper human-reasoning-on-chip — willcb · 2026-10-16
- AI Alignment's Problem May Be Its Researchers Are Too High-Functioning — teortaxesTex · 2026-10-16
- This vintage-style 'linguistic evolution' chart showing computers breaking humanity's language ceiling is going viral in AI circles — repligate · 2026-10-16