Cotra Revisits 2026 AI Forecasts: Progress Beats Expectations

ajeya_cotra · x · 2026-08-15

Ajeya Cotra published an article reviewing her ten qualitative AI capability forecasts from early 2026. The assessment reveals that most milestones were achieved faster than anticipated, though some predictions, such as AI publishing in a top math journal, remain ambiguous. The analysis covers low and high-end predictions across gaming, logistics, video, game design, and math, noting that AI is pushing boundaries even under constrained resources.

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