Polymarket Odds: OpenAI Favored at 32% to Have #1 AI Model by Year-End
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-13
Polymarket released its latest prediction market odds for which company will have the #1 AI model by the end of the year, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard.
- OpenAI leads with a 32% chance.
- Google holds a 20% probability (following reports of Sergey Brin urging recursive self-improvement).
- Meta is close behind at 16%.
- Other contenders: Alibaba and xAI are both at 13%, while Moonshot stands at 11%.
Related event: Polymarket Predicts OpenAI as Top AI by Year-End(2 posts)→
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