Polymarket Data: 15% Chance of an AI Bubble Burst
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-13
The prediction market Polymarket currently sets the probability of an "AI industry bubble burst" at 15%.
The market defines a burst using strict quantitative criteria, requiring at least three of the following within 90 days:
- NVIDIA (NVDA) closing stock price down 50% from ATH
- Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) down 40%
- OpenAI or Anthropic declares bankruptcy
- OpenAI is acquired
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days
- Major AI hardware suppliers (TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, etc.) closing stock price down 50% from ATH
Related event: Prediction Markets Signal 15% Chance of AI Bubble Burst(2 posts)→
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