Ajeya Cotra Scores Her 2025 AI Predictions: Overestimated Benchmarks, Underestimated Revenue
ajeya_cotra · x · 2026-08-12
Ajeya Cotra reviewed the predictions she made for the AI industry in late 2024. The results show she was generally too optimistic about progress on benchmarks; with the exception of FrontierMath (which saw a massive jump from o3), actual scores fell short of her expectations.
However, she drastically underestimated AI's commercial monetization. She predicted annualized AI revenue would merely grow from $4.5B to $17B, but it actually surged nearly 7x to $30.5B. Overall, she feels fairly well calibrated and expects breakthroughs in game design, video generation, and gameplay to resolve by the end of the year.
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