AI Hits 60% Win Rate in Slay the Spire, Falsifying Previous AGI Timeline Predictions

ajeya_cotra · x · 2026-08-12

Researcher Ajeya Cotra previously predicted that AI would likely (80%) be unable to complete certain complex tasks by the end of 2026. However, recent progress in AI playing Slay the Spire has seemingly falsified this prediction early.

She notes that while the Agentic STS project achieved a 60% win rate (at Ascension 0), it relied heavily on a specialized harness with game-specific information. Furthermore, this performance still falls short of what a top human player could achieve after 50 hours of gameplay, suggesting the AI's genuine grasp of the game mechanics still needs further validation.

Related event: AI Slay the Spire Progress Falsifies 2026 AGI Predictions(2 posts)→

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