Ajeya Cotra Revisits 2026 AI Predictions: Game and Video Capabilities May Fall Early
ajeya_cotra · x · 2026-08-12
OpenPhil researcher Ajeya Cotra revisits her January predictions about tasks AI probably (80%) couldn't do by EOY 2026. Informed by recent research from Fable and others, she notes one prediction already seems falsified, while 4 out of 5 still hold.
She guesses that by EOY 2026, two out of three specific tasks—game design, video generation, and gameplay—will actually fall. Overall, she believes her predictions remain well-calibrated.
Related event: AI Slay the Spire Progress Falsifies 2026 AGI Predictions(2 posts)→
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