73% Chance a US State Enacts a Data Center Moratorium, Polymarket Says

Polymarket · x · 2026-08-12

According to prediction market Polymarket, there is a 73% probability that a U.S. state will enact a statewide moratorium on new data centers by the end of 2026.

Background & Drivers

New York previously issued an executive order establishing the first statewide pause on new hyperscale data centers (50 MW+), setting a clear precedent. Meanwhile, the massive electricity demand driven by the AI boom is sparking significant backlash over grid strain, water use, and local impacts.

Although small towns like Quincy, Washington, have experienced an economic "miracle"—cutting poverty and funding public projects through data center investments—the tension between compute expansion and local infrastructure capacity is becoming a major regulatory focal point.

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