Prediction Market: Only 11% Chance of U.S. AI Safety Bill Before 2027
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-10
According to prediction market Polymarket, there is only an 11% chance (the post text mentions 18%, but the linked details show it has dropped to 11%) that the U.S. will enact a federal AI safety bill before 2027.
This prediction primarily reflects the current administration's consistent deregulatory posture, including the revocation of prior executive requirements and a tendency to preempt conflicting state rules. To qualify, a bill must include provisions forbidding the release of specific AI systems, restricting training data or parameters, limiting use cases, or mandating human oversight.
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