AI Demand to Cause Severe HBM Memory Shortage in Next Two Years
RihardJarc · x · 2026-08-09
Investor Rihard Jarc provides a deep analysis of the memory supply and demand cycle driven by AI, particularly for HBM. He argues that if AI demand continues its steep growth, there will not be enough memory supply coming online for the next two years. The cycle could only be broken by a major shift in inference software architecture (he doubts Kimi K3's hybrid mechanism is it) or scaling laws hitting a wall.
He notes that memory companies are using LTAs to cap gross margins and avoid killing value generation downstream. Unlike fixed tech gadgets, memory is now used to produce direct intelligence, acting more like a commodity where falling prices increase demand. Furthermore, the future adoption of consumer AI devices and humanoids could trigger a new memory bull cycle.
Related event: Surging AI Demand Triggers HBM Shortage and Supply Chain Shifts(4 posts)→
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