Nvidia's Rubin Ultra Shifts from HBM to Optical Interconnects, Altering Market Dynamics
zephyr_z9 · x · 2026-08-09
Industry observer @jukan05 recently highlighted a market shift where funds are moving away from memory and into optical interconnects. This trend is driven by three main factors:
- Korean Leveraged ETFs: Regulatory changes have led to LP redemption rushes, triggering sell-offs in memory stocks.
- Nvidia's Architectural Shift: Nvidia is reportedly nerfing HBM in its Rubin Ultra architecture and pivoting to optics to tie multiple racks together. This ensures cluster-level performance superiority even if per-rack performance isn't significantly better.
- Market Sentiment: Investors fear a repeat of historical cycles where customers break Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) due to peaking CAPEX, and traditional fund managers remain skeptical of the AGI narrative.
Adding to this, @zephyrz9 noted that buy-side expectations for memory ASPs (Average Selling Prices) were too high, and the market didn't anticipate SK Hynix selling HBM to Nvidia at a steep discount. A sentiment shift is required for memory stocks to see multiple expansion in the short term.
Related event: Surging AI Demand Triggers HBM Shortage and Supply Chain Shifts(4 posts)→
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