Semiconductor Layer Hits $20T Market Cap Excluding Giants, Analyst Warns of Overheating
pdamodaran · x · 2026-08-09
An analyst pointed out that even excluding hyperscalers and Apple, the combined market cap of the semiconductor layer is still around $15-$20 trillion. From a trading perspective, this valuation seems overdone for at least the next couple of years.
The underlying logic is that almost every hyperscaler and frontier AI lab is going to attempt to build a full stack and optimize deeply. This implies the market frenzy over a single chip layer might be ignoring the shifting dynamics of profit distribution across the supply chain.
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