The Power of Exponential Growth: Kurzweil's 'Second Half of the Chessboard' Comes True
paulnovosad · x · 2026-08-07
Economist Paul Novosad referenced Ray Kurzweil's famous concept of the "second half of the chessboard," marveling at how prescient this metaphor has been for current AI development.
Kurzweil pointed out that exponential growth is initially slower than human intuition expects. However, once it enters the "second half of the chessboard" (i.e., past the halfway mark of doubling cycles), the growth rate completely leaves the realm of human experiential cognition, leading to bizarre and violent changes. Paul noted that when he read this idea in 2014, he had no idea what was coming.
Related event: Kurzweil's Second Half of the Chessboard Proves True(2 posts)→
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