7 Key Updates Shifting AGI Timelines: Revenue, METR, and RSI Sparks
IgorKurganov · x · 2026-08-07
Rob Wiblin outlines 7 major developments affecting AGI timelines this year, such as exploding revenue and GPU rental costs, METR time horizons saturating, early sparks of RSI, and cheap inference scaling. Overall, he has shortened his personal AGI timeline by about one year.
He highlights 4 core topics that most divide AGI bulls and bears: the specific skills required for RSI, whether AI lacks crucial skills in low-feedback-density areas, if RLVR will generalize to messy domains, and whether RSI can create a positive feedback loop. These issues remain unsettled due to a lack of public evidence.
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