Will the METR Curve Hit Infinity? Researcher Clarifies Paper Details
geoffreyirving · x · 2026-08-05
Regarding discussions about the METR model capability curve, researcher Geoffrey Irving clarified a detail that is often forgotten by the discourse. He pointed out that the default behavior of the METR curve is not a line, but rather to hit infinity in finite time.\n\nOnce models are reliably superhuman, they will have a >50% success rate on any software task that humans complete 50% of the time, corresponding to infinity. This key point was actually mentioned in a buried footnote near the end of the original paper.
Related event: Expert Clarifies METR Model Capability Curve is Non-Linear(2 posts)→
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