GDP may track prosperity today, but not across radically different AI futures
jekbradbury · x · 2026-08-04
Philip Trammell argues that GDP is a poor proxy for prosperity across different technology paths.
- GDP can track intuitive prosperity well across countries, within a region in the short run, and within a region over the long run.
- But that does not mean it is reliable across alternative futures: a path with very fast technological progress may still produce much slower GDP growth.
- The essay warns against overly simple analogies, such as treating a huge increase in humans-plus-robots like a straightforward increase in consumer population through immigration.
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