SemiAnalysis: AMD warrants could push Meta and OpenAI GPU capital costs toward zero
AccBalanced · x · 2026-08-04
SemiAnalysis says AMD’s performance-based warrants with Meta and OpenAI could materially lower their effective GPU capital costs as AMD’s share price rises.
- The deals reportedly cover up to 6 GW of AMD Instinct GPUs, with vesting tied to both deployment milestones and AMD’s stock price.
- Using SemiAnalysis’ model, the effective ownership cost for Meta and OpenAI has already fallen from about $2.15/hr/GPU and $2.50/hr/GPU to roughly $1.60/hr/GPU and $1.75/hr/GPU.
- If AMD’s stock climbs into the $600–700 range, the GPU capital cost could effectively approach zero; above $1,000, even the broader cluster capex could become effectively free under the model’s assumptions.
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