Predicting AGI with Compute and API Pricing: Public Opinion Matches Model
anpaure · x · 2026-08-03
The author attempts to forecast the arrival of AGI using evidence rather than pure speculation. Using the No-CoT reasoning benchmark as a stronger signal for base model intelligence, the model incorporates API pricing and broad compute trends measured by Epoch AI.
Furthermore, a survey of 20 people was conducted to calibrate the model and personal predictions. Surprisingly, public opinion aligned very closely with the quantitative model's projections.
Related event: New Interactive Model Predicts AGI Using Compute and API Pricing(2 posts)→
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