Estimating Frontier Model Sizes: Claude Fable at 4.5T Parameters
anpaure · x · 2026-08-03
The author estimates the implicit total parameters of frontier models using intelligence indices, a No-CoT reasoning benchmark, API pricing, compute trends, and a poll of 20 AI researchers.
Results indicate Claude Fable 5 is around 4.5T, GPT-5.6 Sol is 3.1T, Claude Opus 5 is 3.0T, and Kimi K3 is 2.8T. The methodology aims to make opaque parameter counts inspectable and reproducible.
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