Polymarket Prices OpenAI IPO Odds at Just 19% by Year-End Amid Trillion-Dollar Valuation Talks
Polymarket · x · 2026-07-31
Prediction market Polymarket currently prices the probability of OpenAI completing an IPO by the end of this year at just 19%.
OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8 marks a clear near-term catalyst, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley engaged. Trader focus has shifted toward a potential listing window in late 2026 or early 2027, with valuations nearing $1 trillion. Although competitive pressure adds urgency, historical patterns show tech IPOs frequently slip due to market conditions or internal priorities.
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