Prediction Market: OpenAI Leads Odds for #1 AI Model by Year-End, Meta Trails at 12%
Polymarket · x · 2026-07-30
Prediction market Polymarket released the latest probabilities for which company will hold the #1 AI model by the end of 2026. OpenAI leads the pack at 29%, followed closely by Google at 24%.
Notably, Chinese firms are showing strong momentum, with Moonshot (14%), xAI (13%), and Meta (12%) forming the second tier. ByteDance, DeepSeek, and Alibaba also received notable support. This comes despite Meta's recent announcement of a massive $130B+ capex plan for 2026, indicating the market remains skeptical about their odds of achieving the top model.
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