Polymarket Bets GPT-6 Release by Next September at 65%, 89% by Year-End
Polymarket · x · 2026-07-29
According to prediction market Polymarket, the odds of OpenAI releasing GPT-6 by the end of next month are currently only 28%. However, the probability jumps to 65% by the end of September 2026 and surges to 89% by the end of the year.
The market explicitly requires GPT-6 to be accessible to the general public (including open beta or rolling waitlists), with closed betas not counting. Additionally, the context notes that Sam Altman was 'a little surprised' that a recent rogue AI agent's hacking spree didn't provoke a stronger public reaction.
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