Poll: 48% say AI’s economic upside by 2036 would be 75–100% lower if capabilities froze
AdrienLE · x · 2026-07-27
Stefan Schubert asked how much of AI’s projected economic growth through 2036 would disappear if capabilities froze at today’s level, i.e. whether gains come more from better models or from broader diffusion. In the poll, 48% of respondents chose 75–100% lower, with 19% voting 0–25% lower, 15% voting 25–50% lower, and 18% voting 50–75% lower.
The result suggests most respondents think continued capability gains are the main driver of AI’s economic upside, not just slower adoption of today’s tools.
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