The Root of AI Open vs. Closed Debate: Divergent Probabilities of Superintelligence
shlomifruchter · x · 2026-07-26
The author points out that people reach different conclusions in the debate over open vs. closed AI ecosystems fundamentally because they assign different likelihoods to the realization of superintelligence. To foster greater intellectual honesty, the author suggests that writers should declare their estimated probability of superintelligence, $p(SI)$, at the beginning of any post arguing for or against open weights.
Related event: Open vs Closed AI Debate Hinges on Belief in AGI Risks(7 posts)→
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