AI stocks slide as Alphabet lifts 2026 CapEx to $195B–$205B
tengyanAI · x · 2026-07-26
A market read argues that AI stocks are falling even as CapEx keeps rising because investors are re-rating the cash-conversion timeline, not doubting demand.
- Alphabet lifted 2026 CapEx guidance to $195–205B, up from $180–190B.
- The market’s concern is that spend is leaving faster than revenue and free cash flow are coming back.
- The author says open-weight models may increase inference demand, which still pulls on memory, networking, power, and racks.
- The binding constraints remain DRAM first, then HBM; the key watch items are hyperscaler CapEx guidance and memory / power commentary in upcoming earnings.
- Their falsifier: hyperscalers cut CapEx or memory server contracts turn QoQ negative.
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