A 10–100x compute gap may not be enough to lock in AGI forever
menhguin · x · 2026-07-26
The reply argues the “winner takes all” AGI story is only half right.
A lab does not need to be first by years, and even a laggard can catch up despite a 10–100x compute gap. Second movers also tend to waste less time wandering and experimenting, so they can sometimes move more efficiently once the direction is clearer.
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