Artificial Analysis chart puts frontier AI on a 12.1-month doubling curve
christopher534 · reddit · 2026-07-26
- The post argues that frontier AI progress is accelerating rapidly, using an Artificial Analysis chart that fits model scores to an exponential curve.
- The author says they verified the data points and notes that “DeepSWE” was excluded because it does not benchmark enough models for a broad spread.
- On the chart, the current frontier is shown at 61, with an exponential fit of 64.4 at the current cutoff and an implied doubling time of 12.1 months.
- The author asks whether intelligence available to users could double within 12 months and suggests the curve could reach a perfect 100 by March or April 2027.
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