AI demand is pushing DRAM prices up 171.8% and relief may not come until 2028

量子位 · wechat · 2026-07-25

A WeChat article argues that the current memory price surge is not a normal cycle, but a structural shift driven by AI demand.

In 2025 Q3, DRAM contract prices reportedly rose 171.8% year over year. The article says the real driver is not simple shortage, but a major reallocation of advanced manufacturing capacity toward HBM and data-center DRAM. As a result, consumer markets like PCs and phones are facing slower, pricier, and less stable supply.

Three takeaways stand out:

Capacity is being diverted: major memory makers are reportedly sending 70–80% of advanced-node output to HBM and data-center demand.
Price transmission is uneven: PC memory sees the pain first, server memory is often locked in through contracts, and smartphones absorb the cost more gradually through product pricing and spec changes.
Relief may be years away: several forecasts in the piece point to high prices through 2026–2027, with a clearer normalization only around 2028.

The article concludes that this is a structural opportunity for the memory supply chain, not a short-lived spike.

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AI demand is pushing DRAM prices up 171.8% and relief may not come until 2028

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