AI demand is pushing DRAM prices up 171.8% and relief may not come until 2028
量子位 · wechat · 2026-07-25
A WeChat article argues that the current memory price surge is not a normal cycle, but a structural shift driven by AI demand.
In 2025 Q3, DRAM contract prices reportedly rose 171.8% year over year. The article says the real driver is not simple shortage, but a major reallocation of advanced manufacturing capacity toward HBM and data-center DRAM. As a result, consumer markets like PCs and phones are facing slower, pricier, and less stable supply.
Three takeaways stand out:
- Capacity is being diverted: major memory makers are reportedly sending 70–80% of advanced-node output to HBM and data-center demand.
- Price transmission is uneven: PC memory sees the pain first, server memory is often locked in through contracts, and smartphones absorb the cost more gradually through product pricing and spec changes.
- Relief may be years away: several forecasts in the piece point to high prices through 2026–2027, with a clearer normalization only around 2028.
The article concludes that this is a structural opportunity for the memory supply chain, not a short-lived spike.
More from Infra
- Alchemy's Lambda Web Functions run plain Node web servers on Lambda, no OpenNext needed — samgoodwin89 · 2026-10-27
- Inference providers built the market squeezing their margins; software is the only way out — AccBalanced · 2026-10-27
- EMNLP Oral: training-free Nexus Sampling cuts KV-cache memory 10x; OpenResearcher tops BrowseComp-Plus at 54.8% — yuz9yuz · 2026-10-27
- Firms offer neoclouds restrictive short-term GPU loans, eyeing cheap GPU pickups — AccBalanced · 2026-10-27
- Anthropic's S-1 exposes the compute financing gap: multi-year commitments vs shifting demand — AccBalanced · 2026-10-27
- Meta unveils 102.4T liquid-cooled network rack and 2-tier Flattened Planar Fabric for AI at OCP 2026 — Meta_Engineers · 2026-10-27